Non-heterosexual identity is in free-fall among U.S. young adults

Bisexual women show the biggest decline

Last fall, researcher Eric Kaufmann concluded that “trans identification is in free fall among the young.” His declaration was a little premature – his sources measured identifying as non-binary, not transgender, and were not nationally representative. But after digging into the best data I could find, I concluded he was probably right: Identifying as transgender and non-binary really did decline among U.S. young adults after 2023, and even among teens as young as 13.

Kaufmann found that identifying as lesbian, gay, or bisexual was also declining, but most of his sources were college samples. At the time there wasn’t much nationally representative data on sexual orientation for 2024 or 2025, and the little there was had low sample size.

That nationally representative data is now available. So is it true – is identifying as non-heterosexual in decline among American young adults?